1. The history of my country's animal husbandry development
The development of my country’s animal husbandry has mainly gone through four stages of development
The first stage: before the reform and opening up, animal husbandry was just a sideline;
The second stage: Reform and opening up to the end of the last century, focusing on solving the problem of "not enough food", this stage is also the fastest growing stage of my country's animal husbandry;
The third stage: after the new century to the twelfth five-year plan, focus on solving the "unsafe" problem, and adopt the four most stringent, "rigorous standards, the most stringent supervision, the most severe punishment, and the most serious questions about the animal husbandry industry." responsibility;
Fourth stage: From the 13th Five-Year Plan to the present, focus on solving the problem of "incoordination and insufficiency".
2. The four positioning of animal husbandry development
1. Animal husbandry is a strategic industry to ensure food safety in my country
2. Animal husbandry is the pillar industry of my country’s agricultural and rural economy
3. Animal husbandry is a link industry in the adjustment of my country’s agricultural structure
4. Animal husbandry is an industry that helps farmers and herdsmen in our country to get rid of poverty and become rich, and it is an industry that promotes rural revitalization.
3. The current production situation of animal husbandry
1. Pigs: The production of live pigs fluctuates greatly, the stocks continue to decline, and the prices continue to rise, ensuring that the market supply situation is very severe;
In September of this year, the stock of live pigs decreased by 41.1% year-on-year, the stock of reproductive sows decreased by 38.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative slaughter from January to September decreased by 17.6% year-on-year;
Pork imports continued to increase. From January to September, pork imports were 1,325,700 tons, an increase of 43.6% year-on-year.
The reason for the continuous decline in pig production capacity: "Three Meetings"
1. The cyclical downward trend in pig prices last year caused a reduction in production
2, African swine fever epidemic severely impacts breeding confidence
3. Some local governments have long ignored or even restricted pig raising
Positive changes in pig production
1. The production of large-scale farms has recovered quickly: in September, the number of pigs on large-scale farms increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and the number of breeding sows increased by 3.7% month-on-month;
2. Increased farmers’ enthusiasm for replenishment: In September, the number of live pigs in 12 provinces increased month-on-month, 4 more provinces than last month;
3. Pig feed production and sales have rebounded in an all-round way: September pig feed production increased by 10% month-on-month
In general, various supportive policies and market optimism have a significant effect on raising confidence in breeding, but due to a large decline in live pig production capacity, market supply continues to be tight.
The price is rising rapidly, and the farming income is considerable
In the first week of November, 38.18 yuan per kilogram of live pigs, a year-on-year increase of 172.9%;
2, pork 58.71 yuan, up 149.2% year-on-year;
3, piglets are 79.37 yuan, up 233.1% year-on-year;
In April and September, a profit of 1377 yuan from a commercial fat pig was sold;
From May to September, the average profit of a commercial fat pig was 345 yuan.
Later trend research and judgment
The recovery of live pig production is accelerating. If the epidemic does not recur, it is expected that it will bottom out and stabilize before the end of the year, and gradually recover. Pig prices remain high.
2, laying hens
The stock of laying hens continued to increase: In September, the stock of laying hens increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was higher than the average level of the past four years. The first three quarters increased by 0.7% year-on-year;
Overall balance of supply and demand: In the first three quarters, egg production increased by 2.6% year-on-year, and consumption increased by 1.9% year-on-year. The overall market supply and demand were in balance.
Prices continue to rise: In the first week of November, eggs in the main producing provinces were 11.79 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%. In the first three quarters, the average egg price was 8.2 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%;
Breeders made substantial profits: In September, each chicken made a profit of 6.8 yuan, which was a profit for 26 consecutive months. In the first three quarters, the cumulative benefit was 27.2 yuan per bird, an increase of 51.7% year-on-year;
Later trend research and judgment
The production capacity continues to increase, and the market supply and demand balance is loose;
The breeding income in 2019 will be good, and the farmers will fill up more stocks. It is expected that the stock of laying hens will be at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter and 2020;
With the increase in pork prices, the substitution effect of egg consumption will be further strengthened, and the overall supply and demand will be balanced.
3. Broiler
Production capacity continues to rise: In September, broiler production increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative production in the first three quarters increased by 13% year-on-year
Poor chicken supply: In the first three quarters, the production of white feather broilers increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and yellow feather broilers increased by 15.4% year-on-year. Under the situation of tight pork supply, chicken substitute consumption continued to increase.
The price of broiler chickens increased: In September, the price of white feather broilers was 10.2 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and the price of yellow feather broilers was 20.9 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%;
The income is at a good historical level: the average profit of white feather broilers in the first three quarters has been 0.15 yuan, and the average profit of yellow feather broilers is 7.4 yuan, which is at a historically good level.
Late trend research and judgment:
The supply of broilers is sufficient, and there will be a good profit throughout the year;
The market conditions are good, the price continues to be high, and the farmers are very enthusiastic about making up the stock. It is expected that the production capacity will continue to increase in the future;
Affected by the African swine fever, chicken consumption will increase, and there will be a trend of increasing both volume and price before the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival. The overall income of broiler farming throughout the year is better.
4, cow
Inventory decline and production increase: The stock of adult cows in September decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the production of fresh milk from January to September increased by 5.5% year-on-year;
Export increase: From January to August, dairy imports were 2.023 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, equivalent to about 12.02 million tons of raw milk;
The country’s production of fresh milk and dairy imports have both increased, and the supply of raw milk in the market is guaranteed. The self-sufficiency rate of domestically produced raw milk is 53.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%.
The price of fresh milk continued to rise: in the first week of November, the province’s fresh milk was 3.82 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%;
Dairy cow breeding has better benefits: the profit of milk production per adult cow in September was 505 yuan, which was 1.5 times that of the same period last year and 1.9 times the average value of the same period in the past five years; the profit of milk production per adult cow from January to September was 3424 yuan.
Late trend research and judgment
The level of breeding continues to improve: the production of fresh milk will also increase steadily;
Domestic dairy product consumption continues to grow, and the supply of domestic raw milk is tightening. The price of raw milk will continue to rise in the later period, and the income from breeding will continue to improve.
5. Beef cattle
Supply remained tightly balanced: In September, the stock of beef cattle increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and breeding cows increased by 0.1% year-on-year; from January to September, cumulative beef cattle production decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, and beef production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year; cumulative beef transactions from January to September The volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year, and consumption increased steadily;
Benefits remained at a good level: in the first week of November, beef was 82.22 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 23.7% year-on-year; from January to September, the net income of fattening beef cattle was 1,824 yuan, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year;
Beef imports increased significantly: from January to August, beef imports were 980,000 tons, an increase of 53.6% year-on-year; the main sources of imports were Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Australia.
Later trend research and judgment
The prices of live cattle and reproductive cows continue to rise, the market for calves and shelf cattle is in short supply, and the enthusiasm for breeding is high;
However, limited by factors such as a long growth cycle and large investment in scale expansion, the tight balance of the beef cattle industry will still be maintained for a period of time, and the efficiency of beef cattle breeding will remain at a relatively good level.
6, meat sheep
Decrease in slaughter and tight mutton supply: From January to September, the cumulative mutton slaughter fell by 7.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the same period; the cumulative mutton transaction volume decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the mutton supply was generally tight;
The price continued to rise: in the first week of November, mutton was 79.41 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%;
Breeding income is at a relatively high level: in September, the profit of sheep has been 461 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.7%, and the profit of a goat is 648 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.3%.
Later trend research and judgment
The current production capacity of mutton sheep is low, and the cumulative number of newborn lambs from January to September decreased by 10.5% year-on-year. The number of mutton sheep available for slaughter during the year is limited;
As the consumption of mutton enters the peak season of autumn and winter, it is expected that the price of mutton will show an upward trend in the later period, and mutton sheep breeding will maintain a good profit.
Fourth, the current ten major problems facing the animal husbandry industry
1. Inadequate understanding of the development of animal husbandry
2. Livestock products enter a new stage of consumption orientation
3. Environmental protection pressure is increasing
4. Resource constraints are becoming increasingly prominent
5. Livestock and poultry breeding industry is large but not strong
6. The risk of animal disease is still high
7. The development of industrialization is lagging behind
8. Insufficient technological support
9. Grassroots animal husbandry and veterinary technology extension system is weakened
10, the international competitiveness is not strong
Five, the next step outlook
Goal: Excellent supply, strong safety, ecological preservation
Key points: Stabilize pigs, prevent epidemics, reduce veterinary drugs, treat manure, adjust structure
1. Do everything possible to stabilize pig production
2, solidly promote the revitalization of the dairy industry
3. Speed up the construction of a modern livestock and poultry seed industry
4. Promote the upgrading of livestock and poultry breeding
5. Actively adjust and optimize the industrial structure
6. Vigorously promote the resource utilization of livestock and poultry breeding waste
7. Cultivate new drivers of development
8. Enhance technological support
9. Improve the level of biosafety protection of farm households
10. Strengthen technical support services