"Under the current situation of oversupply, it will be a high probability that the steel price will decline again in July and August 2020, but due to the impact of environmental protection or limited decline, the reference decline is expected to be 50-150 yuan / ton." on July 21, insiders believe that the current overall supply and demand pattern of China's steel market is different from that in July 2018, Naturally, the environmental protection hype will not form a phased rise like that in 2018.
On July 15, the national green development fund Co., Ltd. held the unveiling ceremony, which is the first * investment fund in the field of ecological environment in China, clarifying the country's firm attitude towards strengthening the construction of ecological civilization and promoting green development. The same time node, the same early trend and the same "journey of environmental protection". On July 3, 2018, the three-year action plan for winning the blue sky defense war was publicly released by the State Council. The steel plant ushered in large-scale environmental protection production restriction, and the steel output was not high, resulting in the shortage of some specifications in some areas of the market. At the same time, after the steel plant Limited production, it continued to raise the ex factory price of steel. The average price of steel rose all the way from around 4050 yuan / ton in early July to 4572 yuan / ton in late August, an increase of more than 500 yuan / ton, forming the off-season of the steel market in July and August 2018.
According to the analysis of industry insiders, although the demand was overdrawn in advance, the steel price did not rise in the peak demand season in September and October 2018, and even then there was a "waterfall" decline. It is obvious that the conditions in the off-season of the steel market in summer 2018 can not be copied.
According to novel coronavirus pneumonia, the demand and transportation of China's steel market were stagnant directly in early 2020. Although the steel mill has cut down production, the stock of the whole society and the stock of the steel mill have been broken down even after the downstream undertaking. The total inventory of steel has been even higher, which is exactly the opposite of the situation in early 2018. "Then the domestic epidemic was controlled, various favorable national policies were issued, and the social inventory of steel decreased steadily. However, by July, the total social inventory was still high, an increase of more than 80% compared with the same period in 2018." industry insiders said.
At present, the social inventory of steel has begun to stop falling and increase, which means that the downstream demand in the off-season has begun to weaken significantly. "There will be more rain in 2020 than in previous years. The Yangtze River Basin has even experienced floods once in decades. The downstream demand for steel in July and August is weaker than that in 2018, but it is definitely not much stronger. In this case, the same environmental protection production restriction policy is difficult to achieve the same effect. Moreover, the market believes that due to the impact of economic recovery after the epidemic, the supervision of environmental protection inspection in 2020 should be strengthened It's more relaxed than in previous years, "industry insiders believe.
